Lindomania

I was able to watch the season opener, having been laid up with a fortuitously-timed cold.

I know what you're thinking, but this was the real thing. I wanted to go to work. In the spirit of the Wrestlemania season, this is a shoot cold. I'm not working anyone.

So we can all agree that the one game we're all paying super-close attention to is the one that sets the tone for the rest of the season, right? Even though it's 50/50 if Adam Lind is even on the roster in September?

Things I liked:

1. Yay we win!
2. Blake Treinen hella closed!
3. Strasburg was rad as hell!
4. Bryce Harper hit a home run and so did some other guy so we won!

Things I'm worried about:

I have two issues with the lineup, which is all the issues the issues with the lineup.

1. This is not a good defensive team. Daniel Murphy is still shipping up to second base; Jayson Werth is one year closer to being a full-on inexplicably-adored mummy; Adam Eaton in center is not something a team with a center fielder would do.
2. This is not a good offensive team. I "analyze" a team's offense by how far down the lineup I go before I find a batter less interesting than whatever lunatic ancient alien/Nostradamus show is on the History channel. The Nats made it all the way down to Dutch Zimmerman hitting in the fifth position. That's not great.

It'll get better once Rendon returns from whatever seemingly tiny injury is keeping him out, but we're down a Wilson Ramos. No one likes Matt Wieters more than I do, but let's not pretend that he can hit.

Manifesti

"I could do the math, but I choose to take a nap."

-RiFF RAFF

"If you're good at something, never do it for free."

-The Joker (attributed)

These two aphorisms are the new twin mottos of Distinguished Senators. One comes from an outlandish fictional character whose unbelievable antics have entertained us for years, and the other is from some Batman movie.

Above: Rap game Katy Perry

To explain:

1. My disinclination to do the math is not a new development. It took a genius like RiFF RAFF, a veritable neon icon, to summarize my philosophy on it. It was over a decade ago that I wrote maybe three posts including some cutting edge Bush administration-era baseball statistics before I realized that I was sick of that stuff.

From that point, I asked my audience to take my word for it - if I say someone (for instance, Jayson Werth) can't hit, believe that I looked it up or at least made a reasonable assumption. I'm not going to bore both of us with math.

And by "both," I do mean, in many cases, literally two people.

2. The Joker bit really made me think. Was I a good blogger? Maybe not in terms of output (at this point I'm at about four posts per annum). But if any of these posts was any good, I was - according to a guy who got turned by acid into a clown - making a mistake.

So all I need to do is figure a way to get paid for blogging, right? That's some cutting edge Bush administration-era blogthinking right there, my friend. Is there a word for something that is more unlikely than something that is impossible?

The only solution then is to stop being good at it. And that works together very nicely with RiFF RAFF's example. Knotty baseball problem? Just type something fast and stupid and then take a nap. It's not like I'm getting paid for this.

Here's hoping there's a difference to notice.

Greener

Stephen Strasburg's going to be sticking around for a while, and what a pleasant surprise that is.

I figured the combination of Scott Boras' advice and the Nationals' organizational whateverness when it came to Strasburg meant he was bound to go the way of the Zimmermann, but maybe the organization wasn't as whatevery as I thought.

I was influenced by the fact that the fans all seem to hate him. I get it, I guess. He's never been as good as we all hoped, and I suppose he comes off kind wienerish. But it's nice that the team is run by people smarter than those cheering for it.

It's more puzzling from the Strasburg/Boras end. Boras is infamous for making sure his clients see free agency. Why does he do this? As bank robber Willie Sutton allegedly but probably didn't say when asked why he robbed banks, "That's where the money is."

What changed this time? For the answer to this question, we go to another fake quotation: I assume that at some point in the 1970s Tommy John said, "My arm hurts." Then he had his eponymous surgery, which we've learned can extend the careers but dampen the earning potential of major league pitchers.

That's my guess. You can feel free to chalk it up to Strasburg's fondness for the organization or the area or even you personally, but I'm going with the idea that unconventional placement of his ligaments makes him less inclined to gamble on free agency. All that deferred money that wasn't good enough for Jason Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes looks greener when you've got a time bomb in your arm.

I'm a fan of the extension (it ain't my money), and I especially like how it widens the Nats competitive window. When Max Scherzer signed on, I figured we had two years, and I based that on the assumption that Strasburg wasn't sticking around any longer than he had to. You can see why I was so upset when Year One was ruined by the Three Stooges.

I'm still upset by that, but now we have extra years. Stephen Strasburg is going to be our #2 starter for at least three more years, and all our foes envy our good fortune.

Secondary Goals

The Nationals have won the division, which is the primary goal. Now they have the opportunity to accomplish a number of secondary goals.

One of these is keep me from worrying over the course of the season. Following a sports team is not a restful pastime. You worry and get angry and wind up wincing every time you hear Pete Kozma's name years later.

The Nats' main priority should be making sure none of that happens to me until the playoffs start.

And I have to say, I was starting to think about considering beginning to worry last night. The Nats were sitting on two straight losses and getting shut out by some guy I ain't never heard of.

It's one thing to get shut down by Jose Fernandez; that didn't bother me. But after three innings of silence against the dregs of Miami's bullpen followed by eight strikeouts at the hands of 32nd-round draft pick Adam Conley, the part of my brain that insists that the worst is going to happen was starting to take over.

Stupid brain! All the Nats were doing was getting Conley where they wanted him. Waiting til they saw the whites of his eyes. Roping, if you will, a dope.

In the seventh inning, Conley ran out of gas. Then came the Cannonade. Two distinct sets of back-to-back homers. Jayson Werth's 200th. A grand slam from Bryce Harper, who hadn't hit one in almost a week. Two hit into that minigolfesque thing in center field.

They didn't light it up for the Nats.

And let's not forget Stephen Strasburg's nearly flawless, possible-new-leadoff-hitter performance.

So yeah, it was silly of me to think about considering beginning to worry. Season's over. Harper's MVP. Dusty's Manager of the Year. See you in October.

Strategic Losses

As we reported first here at Distinguished Senators, the season is over and the Nats won. Just put up that NL East pennant right now. Our gonfalon bubble is unprickable.

Because the rest of the division is engaged in a dispirited slapfight for second place, our beloved, triumphant Nationals can afford the occasional strategic loss.

Jonathan Papelbon blew the save on Sunday, and that's OK. It didn't happen to somebody that anyone likes, Papelbon can handle it, and it gave our unfortunate friends in Philadelphia something to be happy about. He showed real perspective when asked about it. “We’re in first place and we won the [gosh darn] series, man. You know?”

So it's not too upsetting that the Nats failed to complete a sweep of the Phillies, since that game three loss threw into relief the only problem this team has: the save would not have been blown if Jayson Werth were still capable of playing baseball.

The Phillies won when somebody (who cares?) hit a double over Werth's head. Babyhead would have caught it. Den Dekker would have caught it. Any number of the offseason free agents who weren't interested in playing for the Nats would have had a shot.

Ian Desmond probably wouldn't have gotten it.

The hope here is that we gave up a loss, but in return made Dusty Baker aware that he shouldn't leave his worst player out there in the later innings. Maybe - this is a long shot, I know - this will prompt Dusty to consider that he shouldn't be playing his worst player at all.

That's how a loss becomes a win.

Former Nationals Update!

Helpful commenter "Anonymous" sends along with that Austin Kearns is a volunteer coach at Lexington Christian Academy. It's nice that he's staying busy, and I hope he doesn't break anyone's femur.

I have also discovered that Kory Casto has been inducted into the North Marion High School Hall of Fame. I was always pretty hard on Casto, but that was only because he was taking playing time away from Chris Snelling. Plus I think he was pranking us with how to spell his name.

Drive Like a Demon from Station to Station

The Nationals pulled off some North American free trade in January. Remember Drew Storen? Not our problem any more. He's a Blue Jay now. Let Trudeau worry about him.

We got Ben Revere, who, according to various advanced metrics I won't be sharing here, will be at least useful.

Is he the solution to our outfield challenges? He can't do everything to fix our woes, obviously - it would take an MVP performance from Jayson Werth's parole officer to do that - but he should help.

I'm second to none in my affection for and mockery of the tiny-headedness of Michael A. Taylor, but the dude's a born fourth outfielder. The Nats know this - did you see some of the cockamamie schemes they were devising to keep Taylor from being the starting center fielder? I'm glad we didn't have the wherewithal to pay Yoenis Cespedes. They actually would have made him stand in center every day.

So now we have Ben Revere, and this could wind up being a lot of fun. Revere got on base over 35% of the time last year, and after I make my it's-not-1998-anymore adjustments, that turns out to be pretty good. Also, he completely runs like hell all the time. He stole exactly twice as many bases as any Nat last year, and that's always an entertaining dimension for a baseball club to have.

He might be lousy at defense. Opinions are mixed, and I guess we'll find out. Gotta be better than Cespedes, right?

The cost to pick up Revere was one Drew Storen. I'm glad to be rid of him for two reasons.

1. Drew Storen is a very good closer in laboratory conditions. He can get the job done as long as there aren't any loud noises or other relief pitchers with more saves than he has or Pete Kozma. As long as everyone sits quietly and believes in him really hard, he's an asset.

I don't have to tell Nats fans that a closer with those attributes is of limited utility. Maybe he'll thrive in the clinical environment of the Rogers Centre. Maybe he won't. I don't care.

2. Drew Storen reminds me of the human condition, which is depressing. I'm glad I don't have to look at him anymore.

Last year, I plagiarized the Oedipus to talk about Storen's situation, how he seemed to be in a pretty good place until it suddenly came crashing down around him. It was definitely more pretentious than it was edifying or amusing, but I meant every word of it.

Storen's breakdown was instructive, but it was also ominous, and I don't feel like being reminded of it every time the Nats have a lead in the ninth. I don't want Storen on my baseball team any more than I'd want Oedipus to be my king. I feel real sorry for the motherfuckers, but I have my own problems.

Stable Condition

The Nationals fired Matt Williams, and the fact that the move was a year late doesn't mean it's not a good one.

Virgil points out that rumor is a monster, vast and terrible, fleet-winged and swift-footed, sister to Coeus and Enceladus, who for every feather on her body has as many watchful eyes below as many tongues speaking, as many listening ears.

Enceladus' sister is already providing us the with the names of possible replacements. Bud Black? Yeah, sure. Dave Martinez? OK. Cal Ripken? That's the stupidest damn thing I've ever heard.

I mean, the Nats just acknowledged that hiring a really good player with no managerial experience was a mistake. One has to hope that they're not going to follow up by hiring an even better player with even less experience.

Whoever they hire is going to have his work cut out for him. The Nats do have talent, but that talent comes with some issues. The main issue is that the guys playing for the Nats are weepy schmucks, at least one of whom isn't afraid to try to get his manager fired.

This stable may well be impossible for an outsider to clean out, and I'm going to suggest that they give that job to the man who filled it up.

Jayson Werth should manage the Nationals in 2016.

Just think of all the things that could go right!

• Barry Svrluga said that Werth is insightful and thoughtful. That can't be enitrely because Werth spent all year giving Svrluga dirt about the team. Disregard for speed limits aside, Werth does seem smarter than the average ballplayer. He might be really good.
• Major league manager is a full time job. Faced with the pressures of his new role, Werth might be tempted to give himself lots of time off.
• It's pretty clear that the most difficult aspect of managing the Nationals is Jayson Werth. But if Werth is the manager, it becomes the easiest job in sports. Smooth sailing, Nats fans!

Triumph

After a successful campaign, a Roman general could celebrate a triumph. He'd ride in a chariot through the city with his face painted red to make him look like a terra cotta statue. The crowd would cheer as they gazed upon the spoils of war, and the victorious soldiers would sing dirty songs about their leader.

At the end of the parade, the guy who lost the war would be ritually strangled. In the case of Vercingetorix, he had to wait around for five years between his surrender and the administration of the coup de grâce.

The Nationals have gone to New York, not with dirty songs and painted faces, but with the resignation of a Gaul who's killing time until it's killing time.

This happened a few weeks ago. We're just now getting around to the strangling.

I haven't been paying much attention the last couple of weeks. It's not that I've been especially busy or whatever. I just don't care. The Nats aren't playing for anything, and . . . well, I mean, do you like these guys? It dawned on me over the course of the season that I don't.

And that was even before Barry Svrluga set down the recriminations. It turns out that the Nats don't like the Nats any more than I do. It further turns out that I was right not to like these guys, since they're the most emotionally fragile pack of narcissists that ever failed. I always figured that you had to be mentally tough to make it to the majors, but the 2015 Nationals put that notion to bed.

Among other things:

• Drew Storen responded to his demotion by melting down, sulking, and breaking his thumb.
• Ian Desmond responded to his impending free agency by taking a run at Cristian Guzman's "Worst Nats Shortstop Ever" title.
• The whole team got all weepy over the Tyler Clippard trade, got even weepier about the Papelbon trade, and was just generally weepy about other dudes' paychecks.
• Jonathan Papelbon attempted to demonstrate what happened to Vercingetorix, using Bryce Harper as a stand-in.
• Jayson Werth got a day off and responded by being the biggest jackass in history.

That last one gets a block quote:

Incensed, Werth ripped the lineup card off the wall, bellowing that it was going to change. Then, according to several people who were present, he confronted Williams — not just about whether he would play that day but about what most of the clubhouse considered to be a chronic lack of communication with his players. Among the most jarring barbs, from Werth to Williams: “When exactly do you think you lost this team?” 

The Werth contract was never going to end up being a net gain. It was too long, too much money, and everyone who didn't make that offer to Werth laughed at the team that did. Still, it was looking good for a while there. Werth put up some good numbers as the Nats became a contender. He followed this up by going to jail, getting hurt, being the worst player on a team that included 2015 Ian Desmond, anonymously bitching to the media, and showing up and undercutting his manager.

He's truly the face of the team.

This season isn't a failure entirely because the players are blubbering children. The Lerners decided to get cheap when it came to improving the team. The only move Mike Rizzo made was like taking your car in for a sweet new sound system and instead installing a car bomb. Matt Williams is possibly the worst manager since Ted Turner. Still, it's not clear that these crybabies deserved any better.

I'm not going to cheer the triumphant Mets, but I'm not going to be upset when they get done strangling the Nats either.

Knife Fights

See, here's why I don't get into knife fights.

Imagine you're in a knife fight. Your opponent is wearing his Chucks and high-water jeans, and you have your three-quarter sleeve white pimp jacket, as is customary.

But you're losing! You're all cut up, and there's so much blood on your knife that you can't keep a good grip on it.

Suddenly, the winning move occurs to you. I don't know what this would be since I don't get into knife fights, but maybe it's, like, a double reverse backhand knifestab preceded by saying, "HEY look over there!"

The problem is that you're in no condition to pull off this perfect move - you can't hold your knife and you're getting sleepy from blood loss (does that actually happen, or do I just get sleepy because giving blood is boring?). You figured it out, but too late.

The Nationals could be in a similar situation. Everything's coming together, as long as you define "everything" as "the batters."

• Ryan Zimmerman is . . . well, you can't say he's back to normal, because he's not this good. 7 homers, 28 RBI, and a 942 OPS in August. His September OPS is 2121.
• Jayson Werth is now batting leadoff, and in that position he's "slashing" 328/400/621. I'm skeptical that there's any causation there, but I'll take it. I mean, the man's paid his debt to society and maybe it's time to lay off him.
• Anthony Rendon's maybe coming around. The trend line is upwards, at any rate.
• Bryce Harper is walking more than Johnny Appleseed.

This is a different kind of good team than we expected, but it's looking pretty good regardless. It's the kind of team that can win a division.

But it's probably not the kind of team that can win a division in a month while spotting the Mets six games.

Knife Fight Bibliography:

• Borges, Jorge Luis. (1962) "The South." Ficciones  Trans. Anthony Bonner. New York: Grove Press.
• Herbert, Frank. (1965) Dune. Philadelphia, PA: Chilton Books.
• Payne, Anthony (producer). (1983) Beat It [video]. United States; GASP.

Some Stats

I was looking up some stats for some random players that don't have anything in common. It's one of the things I do to pass the time until the Nationals' season ends on October 4.

Gerardo Parra in August: 295/348/492, three homers, 130 OPS+

Yoenis Cespedes in August: 292/313/462, two homers, 111 OPS+

Ben Zobrist in August: 383/500/638, three homers, 12 walks, 213 OPS+

Michael Taylor in August: 230/266/361, 1 homer, twenty damn strikeouts, 72 OPS+

Leadoff hitter Jayson Werth in August: 125(!)/200(!)/229(!), 1 homer, 19 OPS+(!!!!!!!)

Jonathan Papelbon in August: Five innings

Dead Pledge

This is what four months of charity gets you? They sent Doug Fister to the bullpen.

I don't get it. If Fister's pitching badly enough that you don't want him in the rotation, why do you want him in the bullpen? That's not what a bullpen is for.

This isn't the 1950s. You don't just use dudes who aren't good enough to start in relief. Fister wasn't struggling because because he was running out of gas; he was struggling because his sinker didn't sink. He usually doesn't stay in the game long enough to run out of gas.

He's exactly the kind of pitcher who is not going to thrive as a reliever.

The bright side is that Joe Ross is staying in the rotation. I'm a big fan. Joe Ross strikes out everyone and doesn't give a damn about their feelings. Based on his performance so far, the Nats have already won the Steven Sousa trade.

This being the Nats, even the bright side has a dark side. It sure sounds like Nats management, not having learned the most obvious lesson of the team's last four years, is going to put Ross on some kind of cretin innings limit and make him stop pitching.

Using the 25-30 percent concept as a guideline, Ross’ cap could be somewhere around 153 innings (a 25 percent increase) and 159 innings (a 30 percent increase). And if Ross is averaging about 6.5 innings per start so far in the majors, he could have about five (conservative) to seven starts left in the season. In other words, about the rest of the month.

Yeah yeah developing pitchers young arms blah blah blah whatever. Are you people trying to win? This season is what matters. Maybe you don't mortgage everything to go for it this year, but mortgage something. If this means pushing Joe Ross to the point that he has a 2% higher chance of blowing out his arm in three years, do it.

This isn't the time to play the long game. It's time for the short game. Work on your putting. We're in minigolf territory here. Watch out for the windmill.

So what exactly is the argument against starting Clint Robinson in left field against righties? Well, what's an argument that doesn't include "veteran" or "$21 million" or "I'm afraid Jayson's going to come after me with a shiv made of pressed-together newspaper and prison oatmeal."

Or a sock and an Altoids tin

Hippocraticritical

Why exactly is Ian Desmond playing every day?

The Nationals' roster construction philosophy appears to be built around a variation of the first line of the Hippocratic Oath. Instead of "First do no harm," it's "First don't hurt anyone's feelings (except for Drew Storen's)."

You can't replayce Jayson Werth - that would be insulting. You can't sit Ian Desmond no matter how terrible he's been. Feelings, man.

Perhaps the Nats would be surprised to learn that neither "First do no harm" nor "First don't hurt anyone's feelings (except for Drew Storen's)" is actually in the Hippocratic Oath. I learned that about a minute and half ago, and I still haven't recovered from the shock.

If Hippocrates didn't say it, maybe it's not a good principle for running a baseball team.

Hippocrates: "Don't blame me for this garbage, bro."

You don't need me to tell you that Ian Desmond has not been a contributor this year. He's hitting like Jayson Werth, and he's fielding like Jayson Werth. A list of possible shortstops who would be doing less than Desmond to sabotage 2015 includes:

1. Jason Martinson
2. Miguel Tejada
3. Trea Turner
4. Cristian Guzman
5. Yunel Escobar
6. Danny Espinosa

Espinosa's the most obvious option, but why he's not playing is anything but obvious. He has one (1) plate appearance since the Pirates series at the end of July. Why do you pinch hit with Werth (56 OPS+) when Espinosa (101 OPS+) is sitting there on the bench trying to remember what playing baseball is like?

Sure, Espinosa's not a real shortstop, and sure, his beard starts, like, right under his eyeballs, but neither of those should be enough to keep him out of the lineup like this. Put him at second, Escobar at short, and Rendon at third. Or just leave him at short and see what happens. The Nats are getting F-minus production from short; Espinosa can maybe get that up to a C.

I don't know - is it really just about Desmond's feelings? Everyone seems to like him; maybe the Nats are worried about a mutiny if Desi gets dissed, and the Werth situation shows that they are afraid to make a grown man cry by sitting him.

Or maybe they think Desmond's the best option. That's even worse.

Intimidation

Well look at that, the Nationals got Jonathan Papelbon. Ain't that something?

This doesn't matter even a little bit, but man do I wish it had been someone else. I've always disliked Papelbon. Remember when the hacks who get to call World Series were trying to convince us that when he got ready to throw a pitch, he looked intimidating? Every damn pitch, the camera would give us an unnecessarily close close up and Joe Buck would have to blather something about his terrifying stare. I mean, World Series broadcasters are basically conduits between Fox's corporate sponsors and you, the viewer, but this was shameless even for them. It would take a better shill than Buck to convince anyone that he looks like anything other than the kind of 12 year old who tortures insects.

Oh my goodness I am so intimidated. Who's a big scary man? Who's the big scary man? Is it you? Yes it is!

That said, he's definitely good at pitching. I thought the Nats were going to sit still, but they went out and fixed the third-biggest problem they had. I'm impressed. This transaction wasn't free either, and I'm not talking about the AA pitcher the Nats gave up. This is costing some Lerners some money. Thanks, guys!

It'll be interesting to see who actually closes. Wait, that's not true. Who cares? As long as they both keep their mouths shut - and that could be a problem with Papelbon - it doesn't matter. Especially if the manager has the experience and savvy to figure out the best matchups and . . . oh, right. We don't have one of those, and you can't really trade for one.

The narrative from this point is that all the problems are solved. We got a reliever on the same day Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman came back, so now we're perfect.

This outlook requires a rosier opinion of our ancient position players than I can muster, but I'll settle for one problem being solved.

PS 

[Mets] relief pitcher Jenrry [sic] Mejia has been suspended 162 games for a second positive performance-enhancing drug test, Major League Baseball announced Tuesday.

Hahahahahah get rekt you idiots! You should have known he was on drugs when he told you how to spell his first name.

Untitled #674

From time to time, we've been joined here at Distinguished Senators by outside commentators. This isn't just a space for my lovable voice and insightful insights. We've been enlightened here by William Blake, who told us about Screech. By Origen, who possibly overrated Ryan Church a little bit. And even by Doug Fister, who's been kind enough to keep us up to date on his charity work.

Today we're joined by Steve Kilbey of the Church, who perfectly sums up the Nationals' current predicament.

The enemy seeks our dissolution
All he needs is a little push


The Mets are making that push. They're losing slightly less often than the Nats are. They made a move, acquiring Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson (both Doug's Dudes!). Uribe already won a game for them. They're not done, either: They're trying to get an outfielder - possibly an Upton.

The Nationals, meanwhile? Nah. We're fine, thanks.

Maybe you saw the rumor about Jonathon Papelbon. That's not going to happen. But if you heard about it, that means there's a possibility that you might think that they're not just standing pat. They are.

Nats GM Mike Rizzo did a radio interview last week and dropped some hints that he's not doing a damn thing. "We will certainly be looking but I don't know how active we'll be."

Don't just do something - stand there!

"There's no trade I could make that could be as good as the guys we're getting back [from the DL]."

He can't actually believe that, right? Yeah, getting Rendon back is good news, but are we still trying to convince ourselves that getting Werth and Zimmerman back changes anything other than the specific reasons that the lineup sucks?

The Nats aren't quite good enough, the man in charge of fixing that doesn't seem to realize it's true.

Where are they now? 

• Steve Kilbey and the Church will be appearing at the Fillmore in Silver Spring along with the Psychedelic Furs on Sunday, August 9th. Tickets are available. 
• Origen and William Blake are still dead. 
• Doug Fister will probably have a blog post up tomorrow.

"Chapman" Means "Peddler." "Aroldis" Doesn't Mean Anything.

The Reds have given up, and that could be good news for the Nationals. It won't them from stop beating the hell out of the Nats all the time, but they might be convinced to disgorge a Cuban for us.

They've made it clear that they wish to be done paying Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, but we don't need either of them. We got so many starters. Joe Ross isn't in AAA if he's in an organization that needs starters.

What we need is Cincinnati's slow-walking, smooth-talking, triple-digit-fastball-throwing closer, Mr. Aroldis Chapman.

The important thing here is the numbers on the left. They all start with a 1 and have three digits.

I know what you're saying - We have a closer! Drew Storen isn't the kind of guy you trust to close a game you really, really care about, but he's a proven closer.

I'm totally with you on that. The bullpen is, in my opinion and why would I have anything other than my opinion on this here blog, this team's third-highest priority.

Priority number one is offensive production from left field/first base. We're hamstrung here because Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman are 1. Going to come back sooner or later and 2. Have too much seniority to replace.

Do you remember when they called up Zimmerman and made him play shortstop because they didn't want to insult Vinny Fricking Castilla? It's been ten years, and I'm still holding a grudge. It's not the same people making the decisions these days, but some of the ideas linger. They're not going to make Werth park his jailbird ass on the bench just because they have someone who can hit to play left. Therefore, what point is there in acquiring someone who can hit to play left?

Priority number two won't be addressed because it would be really weird to fire a manager at this point in the season, even if he's Matt Williams. I think even I might be against it. Tony La Russa isn't walking through that door.

So that leaves us with priority number three: the bullpen, and that's why I want Aroldis Chapman to become the second-greatest Cuban in the history of the Washington Nationals.

You can work around having two closers. Let them take turns. Get the platoon advantage. Tell Storen to deal with it because the other guy is way better. Just do it. I don't care what it costs.

I ask the Nationals: Do you want a World Series, or do you want us to think you want a World Series?

Wouldn't it be nice to see this at Nationals Park? Feed your bullpen. Feed it.

Reacquisitions

It's the All Star Break, so I guess it's incumbent on me to follow journalistic (or at least fact-checking) convention and sum up the Nationals at this moment.

Um, they're pretty good. Remember how awful they were in April? It really was astounding, but they've recovered from that.

It's awfully cool to have the presumptive Cy Young and the presumptive MVP playing on the same team. As long as that keeps happening ("that" having a two-part definition, the first part being that they're both playing, and the second part being that they're still good enough to win all the awards), there's a floor to how bad it can get. The Nats are lucky that under that floor is a crawlspace in which dwells the rest of the NL East.

So I'm trying to be positive - there's plenty of reason to be. But I can't shake the feeling that the Nats aren't quite good enough to win the whole thing, and that they're not going to get any better. The combination of best-in-the-league performances from two guys and surprising contributions from scrubs isn't sustainable.

I'm as pleased about Clint Robinson as anyone, but do we think his OPS+ is still going to be 112 at the end of the year? We do not.

I myself saw with my own eyes (otherwise I wouldn't have believed it) Tyler Moore win a game for us by hitting an RBI double.

It is possible, but it's not probable. Don't think it'll happen again.

The real problem here is that Nationals' management has every reason to stand pat. There's no reason to think they won't win 90 games and win the division. We've already heard about how they think they've spent quite enough money this year, and an unwillingness to load up on salary is going to make it difficult to upgrade in a significant way.

So expect to hear a lot about how all these dudes coming off the DL is just like updgrading the team via trading. Jayson Werth coming back - why, that's like trading for a brand new outfielder! Who hits .200!

That's not all, either. It's not out of the question that we could "reacquire" Anthony Rendon two or three more times this year. Just think what a difference that'll make.

Right. Richtig. Correctamundo.

Being right is so much fun that I'm surprised I don't do it more often.

At the end of May, when we found out that Jayson Werth was going back to prison or the disabled list or whatever, I suggested that the Nationals would do best to acquire a major league hitter.

I actually felt pretty silly writing that post, since it was such an obvious take. Who could disagree? I was in one of those moods where I just want to churn out content even if it's pointless. It happens a couple times a decade.

The very same day, Mark Zuckerman of Nats Insider actually did disagree, for which I will always be grateful. Suddenly that post suddenly wasn't so pointless. Only that one, though.

Now I'm feeling more pointful than ever, because Zuckerman has subscribed to the Distinguished Senators School of What the Nationals Should Do, as pioneered by me at the end of May.

"Do the Nats need to acquire another bat?" Zuckerman wonders. It's like he stepped into some kinda pain in the ass spacetime vortex that bumped him back six weeks. Don't tell him what happens in June. He wants to be surprised.

His answer is yes, by the way. The Nationals do need to acquire another bat. Zuckerman has - without admitting it, I'm sorry to report - recanted his earlier foolishness and - also without admitting it - conceded that I was correct the whole time.

The fact that he was unaware of my correctness is no defense.

One other note from that Nats Insider piece:

Denard Span? He’s in Dallas today visiting a back specialist and quite worried he has a more serious ailment than everyone has believed since he first began experiencing back spasms a month ago.

"Everyone" can be forgiven for getting this one wrong, aside from the (presumably) trained medical professionals the team keeps around to handle exactly this kind of issue.

Have those guys gotten anything right this year?

Are We Worked Up

I went on vacation, but I didn't miss anything.

The Nats are winning enough to keep their crappy rivals at bay. The lineup has more holes than Blackburn, Lancashire, and no outside help is forthcoming. Stephen Strasburg is hurt, and the Nats can't beat the Reds.

Nothing has changed! It's like I stepped into some kinda pain in the ass spacetime vortex that bumps you back six weeks. Don't tell me what happens in June. I want to be surprised.

Other than that, I don't know - are we worked up about our dudes not making the All Star team? Scherzer's in there, but he probably won't pitch. Harper helped MLB and its sponsorship partners set a major league data-mining record by getting more votes than anyone ever.

But that's all we got, at least until the first wave of replacements comes in. All Star rosters are getting to be like the NBA playoffs - it's not an accomplishment to make it; it's a failure if you don't make it.

I am looking forward to the All Star break, but it's nothing to do with the game. This team is in dire need of four days off. It brings us four days closer to Jayson Werth coming back, but there is an upside. We also have some good players who will benefit from the time off.

Merciless

I'm relieved. Kicking the hell out of the Braves was a vital thing to do at this juncture. They were within two games, and when a lesser rival tries to impinge on your turf, you have to deal with it mercilessly.

I'm guessing Jayson Werth picked that up back in February and passed it on to the rest of the team.

Seriously, it could have been bad. What if we'd lost that series? Disaster.

There were good signs even aside from the wins. The starting pitchers, for example, broke some kind of made-up-ass record. It's not like anyone actually cares about the franchise record consecutive scoreless innings by starters, but this last turn through the rotation does show that what was supposed to be our strength might actually be as good as advertised.

• Fister? Back!
• Strasburg? Maybe back!
• Scherzer? Holy crap is Scherzer great. 
• A couple other guys? Yeah sure!

And they even scored seven runs Thursday with the B-team.

Which brings us to the gloomy part of the post. The team was as B-ish as it was because Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon are hurting.

Rendon has a "little bit of an issue with the quad that he’s been playing with," no doubt ignoring his doctor's insistence that playing with it only makes it worse. Based on his injury history, we can expect to see Rendon back in time for Thanksgiving.

Harper is dealing with a similar issue. His leg hurts. This is worrisome, because frankly his legs haven't been doing a super great job of carrying him around lately. If they can't do that, what else are they good for?

Even if this particular quadriceps problem isn't a big deal, we're all expecting Harper to hurt himself for real at some point, right? This beautiful dream has to end sometime, and I don't think we're lucky enough that it'll wait until October.

Replaycement Postscript

In this morning's post, I argued against a position that I wasn't sure anyone had actually taken. We need to replace Jayson Werth, I said, because:

1. The Nats are going for it this year
2. Werth was terrible before he got injured
3. Werth will likely be terrible when he's not injured anymore
4. The Nats' in-house options are not good enough

Now Mark Zuckerman at teh Insider has taken the opposite position.

And they’ve established they can win without him already this season. Since Werth last played May 15, the Nationals have gone 9-2. 

So the notion that general manager Mike Rizzo needs to go out and acquire another left fielder to take Werth’s place is a bit misguided.

What could be more definitive than a sample of eleven games? Eleven games, by the way, in which the Nats did not score very many runs and were carried by Bryce Harper.

For one thing, Werth isn’t out for the season. He will be coming back, and Rizzo isn’t the type who usually gets pressured into picking up a player to fill in for only 2 1/2 months.

If this team really cares about winning, he'll be coming back as a pinch hitter.

Werth also remains under contract for two more seasons after 2015, owed $21 million in 2016 and again in 2017. He’s not going anywhere.

If this team really cares about winning, they won't let sunk costs stop them from getting the team into championship shape.

Zuckerman then goes on to describe the Taylor/Moore/Robinson crap chimera that's getting Werth's playing time. He acknowledges that they're not any good before showing us the bright side.

Take Werth’s stats out of the mix, and the Nationals’ remaining left fielders have been just as productive, even more so in some cases: a .215 batting average, .271 on-base percentage, .329 slugging percentage and .600 OPS. Still below-average, but the guy they had for most of the season’s first six weeks was producing at below-average levels to begin with.

So on the one hand, Werth is going to come back so we can't fill his spot. On the other hand, Werth was playing so badly that we don't lose by playing scrubs in his place. If the second part is true (it is), then the first one doesn't make any sense.

There are a lot of silly assumptions here, like that since the Nats have been winning so far while getting nothing from left field, they're bound to continue winning if left remains a black hole. Or that the rest of the lineup is such a murderers' row that we can punt on LF anyway.

When it comes to the people actually making the decisions, I'm worried that bit about "$21 million in 2016 and again in 2017" is going to loom larger than it does in either my or Zuckerman's analysis.